A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
