Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
